Russians are concerned about where to invest in a situation where the dollar exchange rate against the national currency is becoming higher every day. Before taking any decisive action, it is worth trying to predict the situation in the future.

Definitions and features

Let's start with a definition: devaluation is a decrease in the purchasing value of one currency in relation to others, in our case - the value of the ruble in relation to the US dollar and the euro. And since our country’s reserves are stored in foreign currency, then ordinary people They feel very keenly a decrease or increase in the exchange rate.

Let’s look at a specific example: if you previously could buy 2 loaves of bread for 50 rubles, but now you can buy one. In 1998, and after in 2008, our country faced a similar situation when the ruble during.

At that time, many analysts advised converting all your savings into dollars or euros. Everything happened differently, the ruble began to strengthen and gain value, as a result, many people lost part of their savings in foreign currency deposits. The same situation could happen again this time.

On the other hand, as long as economic pressure from the West continues and the political situation in Ukraine does not settle, the ruble will continue to weaken. This is due to many factors, including reduced economic growth, decreased investment, lower oil prices, etc.

Some experts, when predicting the financial situation in the future, use the method of traders from the Forex currency exchange. They assume that the dollar will continue to grow in value, so you should not keep your savings in the national currency.

What are we seeing this year?

Despite the fact that the crisis of past years affected almost all sectors of our life, many enterprises closed, and people at the same time lost their source of income, the situation in the country is slowly but surely getting better. This became possible thanks to the work carried out by the Central Bank, strict government policies, support, etc.

Already now we can see how the ruble has slightly increased in value and strengthened against the dollar and euro. Those people who kept their savings in foreign currencies suffer losses and transfer their savings to other areas. Especially it concerns foreign currency borrowers.

Banks offer completely unfavorable conditions for processing foreign currency deposits; profitability now rarely exceeds 2-2.5% per annum. But if you look at it, you can see a rate of up to 8-10% per year.

Should we be afraid of devaluation? No, because in fact it has been present in our country since 1998. For example: a dollar used to cost about 6 rubles, but now it’s 60. Imported goods have become more expensive, but nothing more.

Should we be afraid of default? No, because this is the impossibility of an entire state to answer to its external and internal circumstances, which is not the case in Russia. Our reserves are huge and will last for many more crises ahead.

Where can you invest your money in 2019?

It is completely logical that if the purchasing power of a currency is constantly falling, then it is necessary to try not only to save the available cash, but also, if possible, to increase it. Don’t forget that in our country there is a fairly high rate, which annually “eats up” part of the savings.

You need to invest what you have to make your money work. There are several options where you can invest them:

1. In currency. If the ruble continues to fall, then you can earn a little money on deposits in dollars or euros. At the same time, you need to be careful and exchange the currency back into the national currency in time. Otherwise, if the dollar or euro falls, you can lose money. Important: you do not need to transfer your savings to other currencies, you only need to invest your existing savings. At the same time, count on a long-term investment of at least 2-3 years to earn money. How to open foreign currency deposits,
2. In gold, platinum, palladium. According to experts, precious metals are one of the most reliable currencies, as they are not susceptible to political and economic crises. However, the ruble exchange rate is already low and it is too late to buy valuable metal. More details about investing in gold can be found at.
3. . In conditions of rapidly rising prices, people first of all spend their savings on food, clothing, household items and other necessary things. Expensive purchases, such as housing, are left for later. Thus, supply exceeds demand. It would seem that in such a situation prices would have to decrease, but this is unlikely to happen, since in this case costs will increase construction companies. Therefore, prices will remain at the same level, and you will not lose anything by investing in real estate.
4. Save funds in national currency. The majority of the population does this in the hope that the crisis will soon end and the ruble will rise again. If so, then you will not lose anything, otherwise your money will be significantly reduced.
5. Purchase quality imported goods. Oddly enough, this is the kind of investment that can turn out to be truly profitable. Every year, the price tags for imported goods (appliances, electronics, furniture, clothing, food) are becoming higher and higher, and the quality of domestic production is in many ways not encouraging. For this reason, it is worth considering investing your money in something that will actually be useful to you and will serve you for many years.

The above methods of what to do with savings and where it is best to invest money during devaluation are the most promising and suitable in the current situation, but which one to use depends only on which forecast of the development of events you believe in more

Be afraid of desires, for they come true. Many Russian economists and officials dreamed that the ruble would not depend on oil prices. The dream has come true: now the ruble is weak even with expensive oil. Why is that?

Throughout the past week, oil was trading at the highest levels since November-December 2014 - around $78-80 per barrel of Brent. Last time, in late autumn 2014, when oil was so expensive, the dollar exchange rate in Russia was around 45 rubles. Now it’s around 62. That is, the scale of the creeping devaluation over three and a half years amounted to almost 30%. The ruble in Russia is now weakening regardless of oil prices. Even at the end of June 2017, with oil at $44 per barrel, the ruble was worth more than it is now - about 60 rubles.

Comparing the ruble to dollar exchange rate at the current oil price with what it was at the same price in November 2014 is not only correct, but also very revealing. By the end of 2014, the ruble had already collapsed due to “geopolitics” and the start of the sanctions war. Since then, no external factors of the same force have arisen. Moreover, the country switched to a free exchange rate for the ruble. We have record low inflation. Our trade surplus is growing (including thanks to a new protracted rise in oil prices). But the ruble is still weakening.

It is weakening by the will of the state itself. Here's an example. Central Bank statistics - the data couldn’t be more official: in January - March 2018, Russia received $5.6 billion in additional revenues from oil, 2.7 billion from oil products, 1.3 billion from gas; The total inflow of foreign currency from exports increased by $16.7 billion compared to last year. 13.3 billion (80% of this total influx of foreign currency) was withdrawn into reserves by the Ministry of Finance. In fact, the Russian authorities are pursuing a policy of controlled devaluation of the ruble. They siphon currency from the market, replenishing the budget and protecting public finances from the impact of possible new sanctions.

The weakening of the ruble also has another important government task. While the president, by his decree, requires the Russian economy to grow at a rate higher than the world average (that is, by more than 3.8% per year), it does not reach 2%. Due to weak economic results in the first quarter of 2018, the forecast for economic growth for the whole year of 2.1%, included in the basic scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development, will be reduced, reported May 16. O. Head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. “The situation in the economy is not very good,” said Oreshkin, perhaps the Russian record holder among economic officials for exuding public optimism per unit of statement. All last year he confidently said that our economy would grow by 2% and even higher. As a result, it barely amounted to 1.5%, and even then against the backdrop of a low base effect due to a two-year recession. In the first quarter of 2018, according to Rosstat, this figure decreased to 1.3%, and according to the Ministry of Economic Development, to 1.1%.

Against this background, accelerating inflation (the Ministry of Economic Development has already raised the price growth forecast for 2018 to 3%) and the systematic weakening of the ruble are the only chance for at least some acceleration of economic growth. The political climate in and around Russia is such that there are no fundamental grounds for increasing investments in the country, even among Russian businesses, not to mention foreign ones. There is also no hope for explosive growth in consumer demand as a factor in heating up the economy: the population simply does not have enough money to consume sharply more than now.

Deputies add fuel to the fire with their absurd anti-sanctions bills. Things got to the point that the bureau of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (which can hardly be suspected of opposition and dissent) published a statement calling for the adoption of a law introducing penalties for Russian companies for “compliance with foreign sanctions.” According to representatives of large Russian businesses, our companies, because of this law, fall into a double trap: violating sanctions threatens them with secondary sanctions abroad, and following them - criminal liability in Russia (for up to four years).

So, in our country with an unpredictable past, present and future, we can confidently say that if current trends continue, the ruble will continue to gradually (not too quickly, so as not to scare people) become cheaper even with rising oil prices.

Controlled devaluation is becoming the main tool for stimulating economic growth in the stagnating Russian economy. More natural factors with such sanctions and counter-sanctions, such policies, such judicial practice in relation to business, such an investment climate simply do not work.

The instability of our country's economy and rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency force Russians to look for new financial instruments to protect their savings from depreciation.

Today, an increasing number of our citizens are thinking: is it worth making bank deposits during a crisis, taking out loans, how to save their savings, how to behave in the face of a falling national currency.

Ruble devaluation, denomination, default - what do they mean and how do these terms differ?

Devaluation of the national currency is usually called a decrease (downward movement), recorded by official sources, in the nominal and actual exchange rate (value) of the state currency.

The exchange rate of the national currency, as we all know, is determined by the value of the national currency in relation to the most stable foreign monetary units, as well as the purchasing power of citizens. Behind last years The exchange rate value of the ruble against the US dollar or European currency has decreased slightly.

The concept of devaluation should not be confused with terms such as denomination and default:

• Denomination implies a change (usually a reduction) in the total number of zero digits on the circulating banknotes of the country's currency;
• And default is the country’s inability to bear responsibility for its international obligations (when the state’s external debts objectively cannot be repaid).

Despite the fact that devaluation is a less threatening term than default, a depreciation of the national currency or the fall of the ruble may well bring a lot of trouble to the citizens of our country.

Why may the value of the ruble decrease?

World financiers know many reasons for the decline in the value of the national currencies of various countries. The most significant reasons that may influence the decrease in the value of the ruble are as follows:

• Insufficient stability of Russia's relations with international partners;
• Periodically emerging factors that reduce the market value of oil, gas, and other natural resources in which Russia is rich;
• Instability of the country's domestic markets;
• The emergence of serious problems in large Russian companies, partially or wholly owned by the state (lack of foreign investment, deterioration of international lending conditions, etc.);
• Lack of balance between supply and demand foreign exchange market- the excess of demand for foreign currency over its supply and, accordingly, the excess of the supply of the national currency over its demand.

What happens to deposits when the ruble devaluates?

The devaluation of the national currency, first of all, can lead to a significant increase in the rate of inflation (consumer and other) in the country, as well as to the depreciation of bank deposits of the population issued in the national currency.

Deposits, designed to preserve and increase depositors' savings, will not be able to fulfill their functions if the ruble falls. If citizens' savings are on deposit when the ruble falls and cannot be spent before the expiration date of the deposit agreement, this can lead to significant financial losses for depositors.

With rising inflation and devaluation of the ruble, the standard consumer basket will rapidly rise in price. For the same amount Money Citizens of a country where the national currency is depreciating will be able to purchase significantly fewer goods and services.

If the fall of the national currency is too rapid, this may ultimately lead to default - the inability to timely pay off the international debts of state-owned Russian enterprises.

As a result, the fall of the ruble can lead not only to the depreciation of deposits, but also to a production decline, a reduction in employment - a serious economic crisis in the country. For residents of a country in which the national currency is depreciating, devaluation may mean:

• An inevitable, fairly significant deterioration in living standards;
• Significant reduction in income;
• A sharp drop in the purchasing power of citizens;
• Loss of some or all of your existing savings.

The fall of the ruble can also lead to a sharp rise in the price of imported goods, increased unemployment, bankruptcy of many enterprises or organizations, and other negative social consequences.

What to do if the ruble falls and you have a ruble deposit?

Unfortunately, there are no algorithms for correct actions that will allow you to save your savings in the context of devaluation of the national currency. However, sometimes financiers in such situations advise:

• Close the deposit;
• Make the purchases you need - movable or immovable property, household appliances - those goods that may become significantly more expensive in the near future;
• In some cases, exchange the national currency for a more stable one; It is possible to open a deposit account in foreign currency.

Undoubtedly, when following such recommendations, investors may still lose a certain amount of money. In this case, it is important to be able to correctly calculate the possible losses from maintaining a ruble deposit at the current rate of devaluation of the ruble and the costs of terminating the deposit, currency exchange, and urgent purchase of goods and services.

In August 2018, we all observed another ruble fall: the Russian currency has lost about 10% in value, there is a possibility that the devaluation of the ruble will continue in the fall. What consequences this will entail, what to do and what not to do in this situation in order to protect - this will be discussed further. Take note and act: the sooner, the better.

So, a fall in the ruble exchange rate will inevitably lead to a rise in prices. For all goods and services, not only imported ones: some more, some less. For some positions this can be observed now, for others it will happen soon. As a rule, inflation begins approximately 2-3 months after devaluation - during this time old batches of goods are sold out, new ones are produced and put on sale, at new prices. Read more about why this happens in a separate article:

Increasing expenses with constant incomes will inevitably entail another decline in the population level. If you do nothing, you will also be among those whose financial condition will worsen. To mitigate the impact of the fall of the ruble on your personal wallet, you need to act now. However, in such situations, many people panic, and they take actions that not only do not save, but also further aggravate the situation.

Therefore, let's figure out what to do and what not to do when the ruble falls (these tips are universal, and they can be applied not only to today's situation, but also to any subsequent similar one).

What to do if the ruble falls?

Rule 1. Current purchases in advance, stockpiling. As I already wrote, if the ruble falls, prices for all goods and services will rise following this. If the ruble falls constantly, prices will also rise constantly. The principle “tomorrow is always more expensive than yesterday” will apply. Therefore, in order to save money, in such a situation it is advisable to make all current purchases of necessary goods (groceries and not only) in bulk and in advance. Of course, in the quantity that you can consume and use before the expiration date. Forming and maintaining a certain level of reserves is the first and simplest measure that should be taken when the ruble falls.

Rule 2. Planned large purchases in advance. If your immediate plans were to make a large purchase, and the funds for it have already been collected, it is better to make the purchase in advance, since then the price rises.

Rule 3. Get rid of debts. If your income is not planned to grow in the near future, and you are now spending approximately everything you earn, then when the ruble falls, it is best to try as hard as possible to close all existing loans and debts ahead of schedule. Firstly, you will save on interest. Secondly, when prices for goods and services increase, you will have less money to pay off debts. Because of this, delays in repayment may occur, which will entail penalties, fines, and unpleasant communication with debt collectors. I think it makes sense to take insurance to avoid all this.

However, if your income significantly exceeds your expenses, it is not necessary to repay your loans early. Because prices for goods and services will rise, but loan payments will not - inflation will not affect them.

Rule 4. Diversify income. When the ruble exchange rate falls, not only people, but also almost all enterprises begin to experience financial problems. This means that the consequences of devaluation may be a reduction in production, trade volumes, and, as a consequence, employees and their salaries. Therefore, if you receive income from only one source (salary), at such moments you especially expose yourself to risks. Try to find new sources of income, even small ones. Particular attention should be paid to those options where they pay in foreign currency, for example, different methods.

Rule 5. Buy currency on pullbacks. And finally, in order to save your savings, it makes sense to convert them into foreign currency, but only at the moment of corrective movements in the exchange rate back. You should buy when it is cheaper, and not vice versa.

What not to do when the ruble falls?

Rule 1. Don't buy everything. The experience of past years shows that when the ruble falls, people begin to buy household appliances and other goods en masse, just to spend the rubles somewhere so that they do not depreciate. Such actions will not only not benefit personal finances, but, on the contrary, will cause harm. You will be left with a set of unnecessary goods that will quickly lose their value. Meaning?

Rule 2. Do not buy a currency with strong growth. The stronger the growth, the more likely it is that a pullback will soon follow. Very often, when the ruble falls, people panic and buy currency at its peak. Then the rate begins to correct and fall - they also sell in panic. In general, they suffer serious financial losses, in addition to those caused by the economic situation. Of course, you don't need to do that.

Rule 3. Do not terminate deposits early. Again, panic caused by the fall in the ruble exchange rate often leads to people terminating deposit agreements in national currency, and then buying dollars or goods, or simply keeping them at home so that the “bank does not burst.” In this case, the accrued interest is lost, and sometimes even part of the deposit itself, so this is an incorrect and financially unprofitable approach. Especially if the deposit has already been lying around for a long time.

Rule 4. Do not invest in high-risk projects. Especially those that you don’t understand at all. If you, “in order not to lose money,” decide to urgently invest it, say, in or something similar, most likely, you will lose it there. Such actions are suitable for experienced investors who understand the essence and adequately assess all risks. For the common man, the best option is banal cash dollars.

Rule 5. Don’t trust officials, the media, and don’t expect things to “get over you.” When the ruble begins to fall, often, in order to prevent panic, all sorts of statements from officials and media analysts follow that all this is not justified, that this is speculation, that the dollar is unsupported pieces of paper, and the ruble is the strongest currency in the world, backed by oil, diamonds and anything else. If such statements begin, especially en masse, this is a sure signal that things are very bad and there is an urgent need to act in the opposite direction.

It is also pointless to sit and not take any action, waiting for something to happen, suddenly prices will not rise, suddenly the ruble will strengthen back, etc. This will not happen without objective reasons. In the future, prices always go up, and the ruble exchange rate goes down. Is not it? And personally, I don’t see even the slightest prerequisites for changing this situation.

Now you know what to do and what not to do if the ruble falls. Take action and take action.

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IN ordinary life we have little interest in economics unless we are professionally involved with it. During periods of economic turmoil, interest in phenomena from this area begins to increase. We are beginning to worry about issues of default and devaluation, inflation and denomination. And, since the situation in the country is far from stable, we will also follow. Moreover, increasing financial literacy has never hurt anyone. This article will be devoted to the topic of devaluation, especially since we encountered this phenomenon not so long ago.

Personally, I reduce the risks of ruble devaluation with the help of Tinkof, which currently has the most favorable conditions for saving savings, and you don’t even need to leave your home to open an account.

At the end of the article, I invite all readers to take part in a survey about the prospects Russian currency. Also, do not forget to subscribe to the blog so as not to miss the moment for a profitable currency exchange. About the current situation on financial markets I write regularly to .

So, let's consider questions that will allow us to get acquainted with this phenomenon, so to speak, from the inside:

What is devaluation?

I've been running this blog for over 6 years. All this time, I regularly publish reports on the results of my investments. Now the public investment portfolio is more than 1,000,000 rubles.

Especially for readers, I developed the Lazy Investor Course, in which I showed step by step how to put your personal finances in order and effectively invest your savings in dozens of assets. I recommend that every reader complete at least the first week of training (it's free).

Let's remember the events of a year ago. When the walls of home appliance stores and car dealerships were cracking with queues, when cars were sold to no more than two people (a joke in which there is some truth). And the reason for this was the collapse of our national currency against the dollar by almost half. This collapse in the language of economics is called devaluation (Latin de - decrease, valeo - cost).

Initially, the devaluation of money was called a decrease in the gold content in a unit of currency. After the abolition of the gold standard, the interpretation of this concept also changed. Now devaluation is the decrease in the exchange rate of a currency relative to hard or freely convertible currencies. We will choose the US dollar as the main currency, which we will use in this article, if necessary.

Devaluation is a reduction exchange rate caused by the current economic situation. It is used by central banks to manage national currencies. Naturally, the central bank can influence the value of a currency only indirectly - through foreign exchange interventions. The main course of change, in our case depreciation, is dictated by the market and its mechanisms.

There are two types of devaluation in the economy - open (official) and hidden (market). The population of the state will learn about the official devaluation from the announcement Central Bank. At the same time, it is accompanied by the withdrawal of depreciated paper money and its exchange for hard money. Hidden devaluation occurs under the pressure of economic factors, and devalued money remains in circulation. The effect of each type of devaluation on consumer prices is interesting - with official prices they decrease, with hidden prices - vice versa.

What causes devaluation

Currency devaluation is caused by macroeconomic factors. For example, to reduce inflation and commodity prices, as was done in Turkey in 2005. As a result, inflation in 2005 was the lowest in several decades.

Devaluation can be used to solve problems of trade deficit - that is, the ratio of exports and imports, in hard currency prices. In simple terms, the value of the national currency decreases to increase export revenue. For example, in Russia - to increase sales revenue in national currency.

Market devaluation can occur due to the weakening of the state’s economy due to crises, wars, including sanctions, natural disasters and major man-made accidents.

The value of a currency can also be influenced by hidden methods, for example, the refusal of the regulator (in Russia - the Central Bank) to support the exchange rate of the national currency or direct purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market to devalue the national currency.

Consequences of devaluation

As we saw in the previous section, the state uses official devaluation to achieve a positive impact on the economy. This helps stimulate export operations due to devaluation income, puts domestic producers in a more advantageous position, and reduces the consumption of reserve funds. But, at the same time, it also brings with it negative consequences.

First of all, domestic entrepreneurs who use imported materials and equipment in the technological chain suffer. Further, the population's deposits depreciate in value and decrease due to the outflow of money from deposits. With a high level of dependence of the national economy on imports, prices rise, and, consequently, inflation rises, becoming a consequence of devaluation. Thus, the purchasing power of the population decreases, which provokes the creation of a crisis situation.

Closely related to devaluation is the concept of competitive devaluation or currency wars, when states specifically seek to reduce the exchange rate of the national currency relative to the currencies of other countries with which it has trade relations. By doing this, they increase export volumes and thereby help national industry. A striking example is the devaluation policy of the Japanese government, which has been trying for several years to resume economic growth by weakening the yen.

Currently, there are several factors that can cause devaluation of the ruble:

Decrease in gold and foreign exchange reserves. So, since 2008, it has decreased from 600 billion US dollars to 460, while the Central Bank can operate only 250 billion;
Restricted availability of foreign capital caused by sanctions restrictions from the US and EU. As a result, many large Russian companies were unable to refinance;
Increased demand for foreign currency due to the outflow of capital abroad;
Panic in society, causing early withdrawal of ruble deposits and their withdrawal from circulation;
Decrease in budget revenues due to falling prices for oil and some other export items;
Sanctions regarding the military-industrial complex. Russia is the second largest and main competitor of the United States in arms sales - the share of our military-industrial complex is 23%, the United States is 32% of global sales;
Refusal of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from strict control of the national currency exchange rate and its “free floating”.

Another important factor is that the state currently benefits from a cheap ruble. There are reasons for this too:

The budget is formed in national currency;
All settlements with exporters occur in foreign currency at the existing exchange rate.

Thus, the state is trying to compensate for the fall in oil prices by increasing export revenues. The result of this policy is a significant drop in household incomes, although they are not nominally declining.

In conclusion of the article, we suggest watching a video with an opinion on the devaluation in Russia of a member of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, Evgeniy Tarlo:

On November 10, RIA Novosti published a statement by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Mr. Ulyukaev, about the absence of prerequisites for devaluation expectations and any shocks for the ruble. Most likely, the ruble exchange rate has already reached a level that is beneficial for the Russian economy.

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